Here’s the issue, as I see it. We have so many good stocks now in no man’s land, meaning the stocks of companies that just reported good quarters. They have come down, but not enough to be enticing.
At the same time, the stuff that is really down, well, I can’t think how it turns around.
Take the semis. We had — until last night with Nvidia (NVDA) — three types of semis: the commodities, which are selling at ridiculously low multiples — think Micron (MU) , Western Digital (WDC) (flash) — the ones that were at ridiculously high multiples — think Nvidia — and then ones in no man’s land — think Intel (INTC) , Analog Devices (ADI) , Texas Instruments (TXN) , Skyworks (SWKS) .
As long as Nvidia was climbing, it gave you cover to by the no man’s land. Now you have to wait to see how low Nvidia goes. (Take a look at this article by Bruce Kamich for a technical view on NVDA)
Was Nvidia bad? No, it had a product transition that made it incapable of blowing out the data center number. The problem is, the really, really, really, great companies are always having product transitions, and they usually have a smoother one.
That’s the real worry. Not demand. Not demand at all. So, there will be a price that Nvidia can be bought. It’s just that Nvidia is no longer perfect after being perfect.
All of tech, today at least, is in the grips of Nvidia. So let’s see how that plays out.
You can’t touch anything that’s heavy auto, ’cause auto is weak.
You have to wait a day for retail, after Macy’s M dropped the P-bomb by saying the fourth quarter would be promotional. Do you know, if it hadn’t used that word, Macy’s stock might have been flat yesterday?
You can’t buy anything financial until interest rates stop going down, and as long as the Korean standoff is hot, the rates will stay down.
Consumer products companies are intriguing only if they come down more. Procter & Gamble (PG) , Estee Lauder (EL) , Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio holding PepsiCo (PEP) , McDonald’s (MCD) , Clorox (CLX) , are all a little too high for me to start buying.
Which pretty much leaves you industrials, health care, fintech and transports. All are compelling to me. They are the places we are searching for buys.
That’s where the work must be done until Nvidia settles out.
It’s incredible how one company can control so much sector mind share. That’s what happens, though, when one company dominates the data center, the autonomous car, gaming, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and voice. Wow, that’s’ some line-up. No wonder it’s ultimately the one to buy.
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